Developing a simulation model to study the effect of climatic change on the natural enemies: Green lacewing, Chrysoperla carnea (Stephens)
El Kenway A H, Hassan H A, Ali B A, Fahim M A
Climate change became the most significant global change that has worldwide attracted the scientific community's attention. We aimed to remodel a simulation model to study the potential effect of rising temperatures because of the climatic change on the generation’s number of green lacewing, Chrysoperla carnea. Firstly, generations number among three periods including reference period (2021), current temperature effect, nearby future (2021–2040), and a far-future (2041–2100), were studied using the future climatic data obtained based on GHG-emissions scenarios (SSP-4.5). Our result highlights that there is a statistically significant difference in the mean quantities among the various levels of climate and generation in the Behera and Asyut governorates, respectively. Moreover, there is significant differentiation in the data distribution among DDUs-values in the future than those during the current climatic state compared to 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2081-2100 in both locations. But insignificant differences (P>0.05) between current climate DDUs for C.carnea consecutive generation and 2021-2040 or 2041-2060 in the Asyut governorate was found. These results show great differentiation of needed DDUs for each generation in 2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2081-2100 compared with the current climatic state and among each other. This is mostly related to the expected temperature rise with mention to the significant differentiation from DDUs needed for the first generation compared to the consecutive following generation. Our results produce a new light on the days required for each generation to complete, which is differed no matter the predicted future decades was. This may be considered a promising aspect of other possible studies on the effect of climatic change on the natural enemies.
El Kenway A H, Hassan H A, Ali B A, Fahim M A. Developing a simulation model to study the effect of climatic change on the natural enemies: Green lacewing, Chrysoperla carnea (Stephens). International Journal of Entomology Research, Volume 7, Issue 2, 2022, Pages 41-47